Dole in Trouble?

Check out this new poll in North Carolina:
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 48%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 45%.

Long Lines, Annoying Waits

Sounds like election day, or does it?

Read the article

McCain's Remarks on the Economy

America this week faces an historic crisis in our financial system. We must pass legislation to address this crisis. If we do not, credit will dry up, with devastating consequences for our economy. People will no longer be able to buy homes and their life savings will be at stake. Businesses will not have enough money to pay their employees. If we do not act, ever corner of our country will be impacted. We cannot allow this to happen.

Last Friday, I laid out my proposal and I have since discussed my priorities and concerns with the bill the Administration has put forward. Senator Obama has expressed his priorities and concerns. This morning, I met with a group of economic advisers to talk about the proposal on the table and the steps that we should take going forward. I have also spoken with members of Congress to hear their perspective.

It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration's proposal. I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time.

Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative. I have spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of my decision and have asked him to join me.

I am calling on the President to convene a meeting with the leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and myself. It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem.

We must meet as Americans, not as Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved. I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night's debate until we have taken action to address this crisis.

I am confident that before the markets open on Monday we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners, and earn the confidence of the American people. All we must do to achieve this is temporarily set politics aside, and I am committed to doing so.

Following September 11th, our national leaders came together at a time of crisis. We must show that kind of patriotism now. Americans across our country lament the fact that partisan divisions in Washington have prevented us from addressing our national challenges. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country.

###

H/T to Politics1.com

I like the daily roundup of polls.. check it out:
FLORIDA (ABC News/Washington Post): McCain - 51%, Obama - 46%.
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
MICHIGAN (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
MINNESOTA (Rasmussen): Obama - 52%, McCain - 44%.
NEVADA (Suffolk Univ.): McCain - 46%, Obama - 45%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 1%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): McCain - 47%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
NEW MEXICO (PPP-D): Obama - 53%, McCain - 42%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas-R): Obama - 45%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): McCain - 50%, Obama - 47%.
OHIO (ABC News/Washington Post): McCain - 50%, Obama - 46%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 45%.
PENNSYLVANIA (NBC News/Mason-Dixon): Obama - 46%, McCain - 44%.
VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 51%, McCain - 45%, Others - 2%.
VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 50%, Obama - 48%.
VIRGINIA (ABC News/Washington Post): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Others - 0%.
VIRGINIA (ARG): McCain - 48%, Obama - 46%, Others - 0%.

October Surprise?

WHERE'S THE BEEF?

What is Barack Obama waiting for? As all hell breaks loose in the financial markets, presented to the candidates is the perfect opening to make an impact, rise above the noise, tell us what they would do as president in this situation and show us how presidential they are. Of course, both candidates have economic advisors working on plans for the future, plans to prevent crisis, plans to create jobs or lower taxes or grow the middle class or lower taxes again. And so, this is the time. Tell us what you will do!

John McCain released a statement today (Political Wire was kind enough to present the presidential candidate statements from the Wall Street Journal) that outlines a five- or six-point plan (I read it, but the last couple of points kind of blended, so I wasn't sure how to count it). It addresses the financial market crisis, health care costs, and energy policy - all of which adds up to the economy in general. I don't much like his plan, but the guy's got a plan. Excellent. Information on which Americans can base their vote this November. It makes me realize that I'll never vote Republican, but it's not a crazy plan and it is a plan.

So, Barack Obama must have a plan, too? And he has released it today, as well? Not so much. What is he thinking?!!! In Obama's statement, he tell us . . . not much. First he tells us that he is not going to tell us what he would do. Then he tells us the principles on which he will base his plan, the plan that he is not revealing yet. Of course, Obama is trying to be responsible, telling us that this crisis is so serious that there is no room for partisan politics. Obama will wait until the Fed-Treasury proposal is released.

Uh, what?

Senator Obama, take the bull by the horns and use this opportunity, maybe not to address the type of regulatory reform needed or other complex financial market dynamics, but Good G_d! You can address the economy.  This is it! This is the perfect opportunity for you to roll out your broad economic plan, the two-prong plan that is straight-forward and simple, yet elegant and effective. The plan that talks about a brand-new, fresh works program centered around green jobs, how this plan will not only build America's infrastructure and fulfill its energy needs, but it will also stem global warming! The plan that has as its second prong your detailed health care reform proposal, which will lower health care costs for America as a whole, which will help the economy as a whole, as well as provide individual Americans both financial relief and actual health care! What are you waiting for???

Maybe he is waiting for October. It's a good month. Any bounce he gets in October, as opposed to September, is more likely to last through November 4. Maybe that's it. He's waiting to produce his own October Surprise. Maybe that's it.

I am (still) very worried.

NOW Goes Against Palin

Sort of as a double to what I was talking about yesterday, (yes that is right, I didn't put the elephant there again) this came across the ransom today. Looks like NOW (National Organization of Women) has endorsed against the FIRST FEMALE CANDIDATE since 1984 on a Major Ticket.

I think that goes to back up, politics by race or sex has no place in the national discourse.

See the release here.

Its Getting Annoying

Boy, am I tired of listening to this rhetoric about the advancement for the women's movement because of Palin. How is that? Just solely on the basis of her being a woman. When Joe Lieberman (remember when he ran in 2000, was not this new Joe Lieberman reinvention of himself) ran, I didn't feel it was a step forward solely because he was Jewish. I almost considered that some kind of reverse antisemitism. We should be electing leaders based on who they are, and what they stand for, and of course their qualifications. Bottom line. Period. Don't often agree with things she said, but Gloria Steinem nailed it in this editorial. Click Here.

PS I didnt put the elephant today because this wasn't very elephanty.

Women!

What Do We Want?

There is a debate raging about who is better for women (see, This Week conversation between McCaskill and Fiorina, for example). And who is better to women. Democrats or Republicans? Are Republicans better because John McCain chose Sarah Palin and Barack Obama rejected Hillary Clinton? Are Democrats better because they support policies that support women around the country?

Does a candidate win if he promotes women's rights and issues important to women by promoting and respecting women? Does he win if he supports a woman's right to choose, assistance to women for child care, and equal-pay-for-equal-work legislation?

Is it in the interest of women to have a president who promotes women and pays them well or to have a president who supports legislation to require everyone else to promote women and pay them well?

The answer is yes. Both. All of the above.

Unfortunately, each campaign only gets 50% of the way there when it comes to women. Maybe not even 50%. Promotion at the top is critical. Public respect of women in senior positions is critical. Fixing our system so that issues key to women at every level is critical. There is much to be done.

And what are women's issues, anyway? They are usually defined to include child support, abortion, women's health, child care, equal pay, etc. This drives me crazy! I am a woman and of the things on which I want to see my party's candidate campaign, these do not make the list. How the Iraq War is waged makes my short list. How we defeat the Taliban and other renegades in Afghanistan makes my list. How we defeat Al Qaeda and other terrorists makes my list. How we deal with Russian positioning and aggression makes my list. Whether Israel and Iran get into it makes my list. The proliferation of small and large nuclear arms makes my list. And did I mention that I am a woman?

Global warming, the development of alternative fuels, the creation of a green jobs program, and poor air quality make my short list. Our broken health care system makes my short list. The shrinking of the middle class and the diminishing returns of the American Dream makes my  list. The issues defined as "women's issues" are also important, but they go to the fine tuning of our economy, of our health policy, of the survival of our middle class - they are not the issues on which most voters, including female voters, will be convinced.

Sarah Palin is a good thing for the advancement of women in American society. Not just the fact that she was named, but Gov. Palin herself. (I do have to wonder, however, whether the fact that she is Superwoman is good or bad for women - do we all have to be that incredible, able to work 60+ hours per week while raising our children, returning to work within days of giving birth, managing our offices from our children's sick beds, and so on? Should we have as our example, perhaps, not a superwoman but a mother who receives some help for good child care, whose husband stays at home with the children while she works, who gets paid a bonus even though she leaves work early once in a while to tend to her children? But I digress. . . .)

But if having Gov. Palin on the McCain ticket is good for women, and in many ways I think that it is, having Palin as our Vice President and in a position to influence policy on Roe v. Wade, sex education, and child-care assistance, let alone on Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, global warming, health insurance, and the middle class, would be disastrous for everyone, including the half of the populous who happen to be women.

That's the blessing and curse of women throughout time - more gifts, but with each one comes a price.

Remembering

Here at Votimus, our thoughts are with all those who lost loved ones and friends and colleagues in the attacks of 9/11.  Our thoughts are with our soldiers and with all those who have crossed oceans to risk life and limb to keep us safe and to care for the many victims of war.

And we commend both presidential candidates for suspending their campaign ads and appearances on this somber day.

HOPE is a Bumper Sticker

Is Obama a Fad or Real Change? Some Unsolicited Advice for Barack Obama

Driving to work today I spotted one of those ever-present Obama HOPE bumper stickers and I thought . . . that reminds me a lot of my old Duran Duran sticker. Then I thought . . . why does that remind me of my old Duran Duran sticker?

My Duran Duran sticker was a big deal when I was in high school. Duran Duran was hot. They were huge. Then I went to college with my Duran Duran sticker on my Army-Navy surplus store trunk and within the year, maybe the first quarter, it was sooooo passe.  I'm afraid that Obama might be like Duran Duran - a fad. A really, really big deal . . . for a while. Part of what defines a fad, of course, is that it is temporary, sometimes even fleeting. Is Obama a fleeting fancy?

You see people swoon over Barack Obama, you hear them extol his virtues (granted, not with much specificity), and watch as they give and give and give to his campaign and turn out for his blockbuster speeches. But what I don't hear, the phrase that is notably absent from politico lips, the phrase that is the ultimate compliment, at least to a Democrat . . . "He's the real deal."  That's what was said about Bill Clinton. It's what was said about Jeb Bartlett (oh, woops, that's make believe). If it were the phrase in vogue at the time, it probably would have been said about John F. Kennedy and Franklin D. Roosevelt. I haven't heard it uttered too often about Barack Obama. At all, actually. I certainly wouldn't think to say it about him.

Then there's his image, his logo, his website, his slogans, his speeches. They are all ethereal. There's the halo-like O that makes up his logos, there's the blue-to-light blue sky colors as background behind the halo-like O on his website. There's HOPE. There's the messiah-like feel to his speeches and the crowds' reponses. There's the constant reminder that he is Christian (probably not his fault given the incessant yet false claims of him not being Christian). The policy details are there, somewhere, but they're buried, left alone on the ground while the rest of the campaign floats somewhere overhead.

But here's the rub. He may be a fad, but if he is going to win this election, he just may have to go with that, make the fad last through November 4, ride the wave. He won the Democratic nomination because of all of this stuff, because of these fad-like qualities. Abandoning them is not going to do the trick. He just doesn't have enough depth, and he certainly is not skilled enough in the art of the political interview or debate, to be able to win any other way. He has to run this race on his terms, not on McCain's - run it his way, not McCain's. He needs to be himself and continue to inspire, rouse, and sway. He needs to continue to give his big speeches, make a big splash.

Honing his interviewing and debating skills would be good, too. Maybe he could take a lesson or two from people like Hillary Clinton and L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The Mayor was on KPCC radio this morning and was asked about the holes in Los Angeles' homeland security. This is not a question that the leader of a city should EVER answer directly. Mayor Villaraigosa answered brilliantly, explaining what we get funding for, what we need to get more funding for, that resources are going to all critical areas so that we are in good shape, while still explaining that we need additional resources to further bolster our security. That's a home-run answer. It addresses the issue raised in the question, but on the politician's terms. This is something Barack Obama must master.

The biggest problem with Barack Obama's campaign lately, aside from serious foot-in-mouth disease on the part of both the presidential and vice presidential candidates, is that it is on the defensive and fighting in a passive manner. This causes Obama to look weak, arrogant, and childish. Not a winning combination. The campaign needs to go on the offensive. Not necessarily on the attack because that would require continuing to focus on John McCain or, worse, Governor Palin, but on the offensive. This means crafting an assertive (parts will be positive, parts will be negative) message that tells voters what Obama will accomplish as president, how this will make voters' personal world and our collective world better, and that Obama is in command and will keep us secure (in terms of the economy and our safety). Sprinkle that with some hits on McCain (not Bush) and we're good to go.

Polling, I think, bears out what I propose (see recent ABC News/Washington Post poll and related article).

1.  Green Jobs and Global Warming Rollback Program

A message about what Obama will do 1) to stop global warming, 2) to encourage us to create, produce, and use alternative energy (which will also keep our energy and gas/car costs down), and 3) to create a new green jobs program. You've got global warming, high gas prices, jobs, the economy, tax breaks (later called tax cuts), and other green issues.

2.  Health Care and Insurance Reform

A message about what Obama will do to fix/replace our broken health care system - his health care proposal. Possibly follow Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton's leads and add the mandatory requirement provision. Be bold and go further in the area of tort reform, supporting mandatory caps or some variation on this - bring this point closer to the forefront using clever wording to make it sound simpler and more interesting than it would otherwise. This goes to health care, but it also goes to economic/financial security for most Americans and corruption/gluttony of the rich insurance companies.

3.  Foreign Policy

A message about how Obama will make us feel safe and secure in the midst of the world's craziness. Obama could say . . . I will take the lead in world affairs, I will repair broken relationships, I will act responsibly and be steadfast in policing the world's troublemakers, I will curtail proliferation of nuclear small and large arms, I will help to stabilize the world's shaky and dangerous countries through economic assistance, I will stand by Israel, I will stabilize Iraq so that we are not drawn back in, I will wage war on the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and other belligerent forces in Afghanistan, I will sure up fragmented support in Pakistan, I will work with world leaders to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons, I will keep an eye on Russia and not let them pull any more punches, I will strengthen our military, I will keep America safe and secure.  If Obama exhibits knowledge of geopolitics, makes it clear that he'll be in charge, and names someone as his chief foreign policy advisor (Biden?) . . . if he does this clearly, concisely, consistently, decisively, and in a forward-looking manner, we may start to see him as Commander in Chief.

And finally, one last message for Senator Obama . . . Bush sucked, but we're over it.

Tell us why you will be a fantastic president, how you will keep us safe, how you will keep (or make) the economy healthy, not how you are different than Bush or McCain is the same as Bush. And don't forget to pivot in those interviews and debates!

Rhetoric, Take a Break

Of course there are lots of going ons, but because its September 11th, I think it is best for it to take a break, and for everyone to remember those who died defending our nation and in the horrible 9/11 attacks.

Ron Paul Endorses...

Ron Paul is going to endorse someone. Republican? Nope. Democrat? Nope. One of the third party candidates. What does this mean for Paul's future? Will he continue to be a Republican? Or will he also switch parties? He has been pretty strident in his career making sure he always voted close to his principles.

The real question is, What should the Republican Party do with Ron Paul?

Palin's Church, What's Next?

As a student of Political happenings, and of course Presidential Campaigns, this one is so fascinating. I am sure you all agree. Now, I think it is becoming evident that John McCain did not do the best job in vetting Palin. But, how bad is it really? He has seen a jump in his poll numbers, right? But the question is, will they stay. First it was the baby. Then the bridge to nowhere, and the Ebay plane fiasco. Now it is her religion. It seems as though the McCain Camp is trying to keep her religion under wraps because she is a Pentecostal. Interesting, considering how long was spent talking about a certain other candidates religious leaders (no names, Wright, no names). Palin Story.

So when will it end with Palin? Will there ever be equality in the vetting/reporting? Time will tell.

PIVOT!!!!

Never Answer the Question Asked!

Calling all political coaches! Calling all political coaches! Barack Obama needs you. Now!!

I don't know how many people saw Stephanopolous' Sunday interview of Barack Obama, but I really hope that the undecided and tepid supporters were not among them. Wow, what a terrible interview. Obama waivered, stalled, stuttered, and made the ultimate political mistake by actually answering the questions asked.

Hasn't anyone told Senator Obama that you NEVER answer the question asked? Senator, please please please learn to PIVOT. If they ask you a pointed question about the success of the Surge, for instance, you don't talk about how it was a success but it wasn't a success and the subtle differences between what might be only a temporary peace versus what could be a long-term peace, or not. Kerry-esque answers will do you no good.

What you do do is hone in on one or two of the words or issues raised and use those as a launching off point to pivot and say whatever you want to say. For instance, in the example given, you say, "The war has gone on for too long, too many lives have been lost, too many soldiers have been wounded, too many families have been devastated to risk electing a president McCain who talks like someone who just might launch us into another war, this time with an almost-nuclear-armed Iran or a nuclear-armed Russia or who knows who." OK, maybe a slightly more nuanced version of this, but you get the idea. It's called pivoting. Please learn how to do it!! BEFORE the debates.

Hypocrisy

Ok, I hate hypocrisy. Period. On either side of the isle, in anything. Why are the Democrats saying Palin's personal life should be kept off limits? Both parties engage in personal politics, do they not? And should the fact that Palin is campaigning full time with an infant at home be off limits? I don't know, I think when you are electing someone, their choices in their personal lives do reflect their value system, do they not?

Lets Try Something New Today

I am curious to get some reader input, what should McCain say tonight? What will he say tonight? I think it will be interesting to predict.

Confident, Ernest, Powerful, Effective - A Nightmare

Palin Brings the House Down

And John McCain's choice is vindicated. Palin is incredible. A phenomenal speech.

The crowd loved Sarah Palin. I can't imagine there are any Republicans who didn't love her. She is a power house. Bright, knowledgeable, and she gives a great speech. She kicked ass. They laughed, they cried, they cheered, they were moved, they were brought to their feet. That's a speech.

Confession:  I got chills when she accepted the nomination (the woman thing). And this from a politician with whom I disagree on just about everything! I think that working the woman angle is going to help McCain - it may not get him 10 points, but he may only need one or two to win this election in the end. . . . I hope not.

The GOP is unified. There are no disgruntled Republicans mulling about the hall. They are all for one and it's John McCain.  How much you wanna bet that no one is going to talk about Joe Biden or think about Joe Biden for a long, long time? Maybe ever?

Palin's speech was filled with acrimony ("the presidency is not supposed to be a journey of personal discovery" - ouch) and absolutely horrid policy (pro-life, pro-drilling, anti-tax). I think it might work. Very Republican, no doubt and no confusion. She might be a maverick when it comes government ethics, but in no other arena is she a rebel. She is red, through and through. But she is a fighter, very tough, and kind of sexy. Not sure yet how that is going to play. it's been a while since we've had sexy in a politician - not since Jack Kennedy. (Confession #2: I think Bill Clinton is sexy, too.)

Democrats had better step it up, take some risks, and be bold. The Obama campaign had better have something special planned. This going to be a fight. They are going to have to get at the substance, but not in a boring, lecturing, Democratic Party kind of way. We really need the Clintons! Let's hope that Obama's charm and charisma works magic.

One thing, though, is that the McCain campaign just took a sharp and permanent turn to the right. That is the one decision they've made that I don't think is very smart. But times, they are a changin' and its not about getting out of Iraq (Presidents of the U.S. and Iraq have already agreed that U.S. troops will withdraw in a year or so) and its not about incompetence in government anymore (McCain has shown that he can handle an almost crisis with his smooth approach to Hurricane Gustav, plus its been a long time since Katrina and political memories are short). And if its about the economy, well, what does that even mean?

Here's hoping Democrats can pull this off.

I'm very worried.

Giuliani!

What A Weapon

If the McCain campaign continues to make use of Rudy Giuliani . . . Democrats are in even more trouble than I already think.  If it weren't for those pesky issues, I'd be convinced!

Some snippets:

Not so subtly referring to Obama, Giuliani said, "Change is not a destination and hope is not a strategy."

Ouch.

After listing a number of supposed Obama flip flops, Giuliani said, "If I were Joe Biden, I'd want to get that VP think in writing."

Then, referring to the candidates different reactions to the Russian invasion of Georgia,  he said that Obama went the route of moral equivalency in the same way he compared the Palestinian Authority and Israel.

Double ouch.

Then he says that Obama had to consult with his "300 foreign policy advisors" on the Georgian conflict and that he recommended that the UN Security Council deal with it - Giuliani then adds that apparently none of Obama's 300 advisors told him that Russia has the veto on the Security Council.  Giuliani goes on to recommend to Obama, "Next time . . . call John McCain."

Giuliani gets some attitude and says that he's sorry that Obama seems to think that Palin's hometown, of which she was Mayor, is not cosmopolitan enough. This is said with great derision and visions of arugula dance before the listeners eyes quite effectively.

Then, in introducing Sarah Palin, he says something like, How dare they (Democrats, the media) question whether Palin has enough time to be a mother and a vice president - how dare they! When do they ever ask a man that question?!!

Oh my.

Now Palin . . . let's she what's she got.

I'm very worried.

Fundamentally Incompetent!

Maryland's Gilchrest Has Harsh Words for GOP

The recently unseated Republican congressman from the first district of Maryland, Wayne Gilchrest, presented a lovely gift to Democratic nominee Frank Kratovil, Jr. and the Democratic Party yesterday. His exact words were, "The Republican Party has strayed from the mainstream and from being fundamentally competent." This was part of his endorsement of Kratovil. Gilchrest, who lost his reelection bid in the primary to Republican State Senator Andy Harris back in February, made this announcement on the second day of the Republican Convention. Pow!

According to CQ Politics, Gilchrest made the argument that the GOP has wandered far from its true purposes and, in its extremism, has contributed to the acrimonious and unproductive atmosphere in Washington. And he wasn't shy about naming a few issues from which he thinks the Republican Party has strayed, including the environment, foreign policy, agriculture, energy, and health care. How lovely!

I have argued and still believe that choosing Palin as McCain's running mate was a stroke of genius. However, this does not mean that she is indestructible or that they cannot be beat. One of the best arguments Democrats and the Obama campaign will be able to use against the presidential candidates is Palin's conservatism. She holds opinions and beliefs not held by a majority of Americans and Americans are pretty sick of being represented by people with extreme views. So, while Palin's right-leaning tendencies might rally the Republican base . . . if used properly, they can also really piss off the rest of us. And now "the rest of us" can be defined to include a Republican or too. Thank you Congressman Gilchrest.

While the Center Was A-Rockin

While people in Minnesota were listening to Senators, former Senators, and enjoying the promotion of the Republican ticket, Arizona was voting. Thats right, primary day!

AZ 1- Congressman Rick Renzi is retiring due to an investigation that is ongoing. The primaries on both sides were nasty, but Sydney Hay, the person who ran against Renzi in 2002 was victorious on the GOP side, while Ann Kirkpatrick was successful on the Democratic side.

AZ 5- Congressman Harry Mitchell beat former Rep JD Hayworth in one of the closest races in the country. The Republican primary was long and bruising, but David Schweikert was the victor.

Votimus will update the races in the coming weeks and months.

Palin Fever

There seems to be a lot of excitement and fever surrounding Sarah Palin. Well that is understandable, but there are a few things that are interesting. First off, it sounds like McCain made this decision without polls or focus groups. That is a very brave move. Second off, it seems like he made the selection without first doing research on her. Now, it comes out that her daughter, 17 years old is pregnant, Palin was a member of the Independent party that wanted to break off from the US, and also supported the "bridge to nowhere". All of this came out during the RNC convention, and only on the first day. Is there more to come, or is this it? Only time will tell..