More on the VEEP Watch

News organizations have been reporting that McCain is poised to name his VP pick any moment now. At the beginning of the week, the rumor was that the announcement would come this week, but its Friday and not surprisingly . . . no official word yet.  Of course, these are just Washington rumors and nothing has happened quite yet.

Tim Pawlenty is a favorite still, as is Carly Fiorina (former CEO of Hewlett Packard) who is favored because she is a Washington outsider and, of course, a woman. Can you imagine if McCain upstaged Obama by choosing a woman, especially with all the Hillary supporters out there wishing she were the choice on the Democratic side? Evangenlicals would probably prefer Mike Huckabee. They would not prefer Mitt Romney, but Romney remains the favorite. John Thune and Charlie Crist are still in the mix, as well. And so is Sarah Palin, but as governor of Alaska, a state where Republicans may not want too much attention (scandal with the Senate and House candidates), there is some question whether she'd be the wisest choice, despite her strong credentials and appeal.

On the Democratic side, there have been all kinds of rumors in Washington that Obama will pick his friend and law school buddy, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. (Kaine himself may have helped sparked these rumors, so take it all with a grain of salt.) Kaine is slightly more conservative than Obama, taking a more pro-life stance on abortion, for instance, and having been a Lieberman for president fan back in 2004. He does not have that much political experience, so it's not the most obvious choice, but then he represents Virginia, a key swing state this year (although I thing that the fact that they know each other personally would be a powerful factor, were Kaine actually chosen).

As Obama's lead tightens in swing states, pundits start to focus more on VP picks who could bring Obama one of those key states. Another of those states is Indiana and so Evan Bayh is a favorite choice in recent weeks.  Rumors of Bayh as the choice were fueled this week when it was reported that putting "ObamaBayh08" into your web browser would bring you to the Democratic National Committee website (it really does, though I'm not sure that actually means anything).  Joe Biden also remains in the mix, not because he represents Delaware, though and there are no internet search tricks here.

But, as I've said before . . . maybe they'll both surprise us!

Obama has been leading in national polls by between 2 and 7 points (although one poll has McCain in the lead by 4). Most of this is within the margin of error and so the race, as it stands today, is tight. On the other hand, Obama's lead in a number of key states is slipping a bit.  He's mostly up in Ohio, but only by a couple of points. Same with Michigan.

It's super close in Virginia, Indiana and Florida where Obama has McCain by a couple of points in most polls, but there are one or two polls showing McCain ahead. But, of course, what really matters is the electoral vote count - so keep your eyes on the swing state polls! (See Hotline's Battle for the Electoral College.) The race is on.