Gustav! Palin! Bush! Hoorah!!

Stormy Weather in Minnesota . . . But for Republicans or Democrats?

Not more than a few hours after the exhilarating Democratic National Convention ended, things have turned around for the GOP. Barack Obama's campaign had better have something special planned for the weeks and months ahead.

Sarah Palin is a brilliant choice. Democrats will hit her on lacking experience and Republicans will come back and hit Obama for lacking experience. Democrats will say that the fact that she is a woman is irrelevant and that Hillary voters wouldn't be so stupid as to vote for someone just because she is a woman. But Republicans will know that not all Hillary voters were Democrats and therefore will be attracted to the idea of a woman vice president (and won't appreciate being called stupid for supporting Sarah Palin).

Sarah Palin is known to have an independent streak (she opposed the bridge to nowhere - showing strength enough to deny her own constituents and stand up to the, until recently, powerful Senator Stevens), which will help to distance the pair from George Bush and Dick Cheney. This will re-emphasize McCain's old maverick side. And the Palin pick has energized the campaign - no small thing.

To top all of this off, disaster may have a silver lining for the GOP. Gustav is bearing down on the Gulf Coast and John McCain is there, meeting with Mississippi's Haley Barbour. Gustav may head for the Republican convention after doing its worst down south - the Republican party is considering raising money through its convention for victims of this next storm. Even better, President Bush won't be able to make it to the convention - talk about a blessing (McCain doesn't have to say he doesn't want the President there, yet the President won't be there)! And, of course, McCain, with the help of Sarah Palin, will show compassion and competence and further distance himself from President Bush.

Now, time will tell how this will all turn out. Sarah Palin's inexperience is a real problem that Republicans will have to address, but because of Obama's inexperience, it is not disqualifying. I believe this will be a race. I believe that choosing Palin makes McCain as competitive as he can be. He has even made himself look younger by choosing someone young and exciting and by making the not obvious choice. We shall see if the Maverick is back, but if he is, Obama is in for a very tough fight. I hope he is up to the challenge and doesn't underestimate his competition. I hope that the country really is ready to elect a Democrat to be our next president.

Post Script

As I watched Bill Clinton's speech at the Pepsi Center in Denver, I got very sad. I became sad because we were watching a great president and his incredible wife and senator leave center stage, at least for now. I was sad because I saw the difference between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama - that Clinton spoke to each of us, one to one, as though he were right there in our living rooms while Obama spoke to us as a group, as though he were addressing a congregation that is supposed to react to him in concert. I miss the brilliance and earnestness of Bill Clinton.

But after leaving that speech, I went to an Obama event that showed me the great power he has over people. The way he can arouse people to care and participate. This is also a very good thing. If used well and if not abused, it can be an incredible thing. Now I just hope he wins.

Lex Luther v. Superman

Resilience/Periodic Genius v. The Superstar

I had heard from a journalist that Sarah Palin hadn't passed the vetting process because of some kind of questionable financial dealings, but aside from this, I thought that McCain would be a genius to choose her. If not her, maybe Kay Bailey Hutchison. Palin is a woman (and popular among Republicans). Barack Obama did not choose Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a woman. Lots of not-so- or not-at-all-solid Democratic women were pretty excited about voting for a woman. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this one out.  Sarah Palin is a well-liked woman. Really, that's what it all boils down to.

I am worried.

I've been on a bit of a roller coaster ride the last few days.

. . . I am pissed off at Obama for running. I am pissed off at the Obamas and the Obama primary campaign for having run an insidious campaign that managed to label one of the greatest crusaders for the causes of African Americans as a racist. I am annoyed that Obama has not been very helpful to Hillary Clinton since the primary season ended.

. . . I am worried that Obama cannot win the presidency.

. . . I am worried that if Obama wins the presidency he will not be tough enough or decisive enough to keep us safe, especially with regard to Israel, but also with regard to the Middle East and Russia and whatever comes next.

. . . I am happy to think about all the good Obama could do for the African-American community. I am thrilled and gratified to think that we will have our first African-American nominee for President of the United States.

. . . I am afraid that Obama is not the one to navigate the difficult and complex geopolitical waters ahead.

. . . I am pissed that I didn't get the VP text message I signed for.

. . . I cannot believe that Obama chose Biden as his running mate. What was he thinking? Is there something I'm missing, something I don't know? I am underwhelmed and and doubting Obama's cleverness.

. . . I am really excited about the Democratic National Convention. I am having a great time at the Convention. I love Denver!

. . . I am still pissed that Hillary is not the nominee. I am sad but impressed when watching Hillary's speech. I am blown away by Bill Clinton's speech and pissed off that Michelle Obama looks like she hates him the whole time he's talking. I am amazed that the Obamas can be such sore winners.

. . . I still haven't seen her speech - I will watch it tomorrow.

. . . I am amazed at the 20-something crowd energized by Barack Obama - especially amazed about how much they care about the problems and challenges facing this country and how interested they seem to be in helping to solve some of those problems, face some of those challenges. I have turned a corner and I am feeling better about Barack Obama. I am getting some closure and healing a bit.

. . . I am emotional at the significance of Barack Obama accepting the Democratic nomination.

. . . I am still worried that he won't win, but after his speech, I feel a little better about that.

. . . I am worried that John McCain will choose Palin or Hutchison as his running mate and we'll lose.

. . . I am caught up in the excitement and thinking positive thoughts.

. . . I am impressed that McCain did the genius thing and now very, very worried again.

Maybe Obama's strategy of painting McCain as a well-meaning, but doddering and nearly senile old man will work. Maybe not. Maybe the Obama camp has something more up its collective sleeve. Maybe the resilient John McCain (remember his nearly dead campaign earlier in the primary season?) has even more up his sleeve. Maybe Obama will be like Superman and outsmart the genius, overcome the kryptonite, and defeat Lex Luther in the end.

One can only HOPE.

(And work one's tush off to make sure that Barack Obama is the next President of the United States!)

Its Palin

For those of you who haven't heard, McCain chose Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Good news, now he can count on Alaska's three electoral votes!

The Party's On in Denver!

Thank You Denver!

Colorado has a lot to offer. Boulder is the cutest town ever. The Rocky Mountains speak for themselves. The skiing is incredible. The weather is almost unrivaled. The rivers and streams and wildflowers are wonderful. Even the horses seem healthier here than almost anywhere else. And politically, Colorado is the penultimate swing state this year - it will be close in the presidential due to a growing Latino vote and other changes affecting the nation. And there is an interesting senate race between Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer, which could also be close, though Udall has been keeping up a 7-9 point lead since June.

With all of this, I had never given Colorado's capital city much thought. This is not a city I knew well before coming here for the Democratic Convention. I had driven through and it had seemed nice enough. It's pretty. It's surrounded by magestic beauty. That's what I knew.

Then I met the Mayor of Denver at a function in Washington, DC. He was very nice, pretty down-to-earth and generous with his time. He spent about 45 minutes talking to another mayor's son about colleges.

This week nailed it. I really like Denver. I really love the people of Denver. So, so hospitable! Really, it's sort of unreal. As I type, I am sitting in the law office of an attorney who, just to be nice, offered me and a colleague a ride home late Monday night (and later, use of his office). He spotted us on the street, hopelessly trying to hail a taxi. He drove up, asked us where we were going, and whether we'd like a ride. We said yes, jumped in, and off we went in his Prius (of course he drove a Prius!). In the car, he asked where we were from. We said Los Angeles. He said, "Do you know Nate & Al's?" We said, "Of course we know Nate & Al's!" I said, "My grandmother and my great uncle used to go there all the time, and I love it as well." The kind attorney said, "Al was my uncle." How cool is that?!

A couple of days and many miles later, requiring foot-replacement surgery, I entered a Walgreens to purchase a pair of flip flops, hoping this would get me through the next two days with minimal pain. I found a pair, but while checking out all the stylish options, a Walgreens employee asked me if I needed help. In shock at this gesture, I explained why I was looking at several hideous pairs of flip flops, and she suggested that I try gel-filled shoe liners. She then proceeded to walk me to the product and helped me pick one out. That has NEVER happened to me in ANY drug store I've EVER shopped in. I thought that this level of customer service was reserved to high-end clothing boutiques in Beverly Hills for the rich and famous.

And then I attended the best party I've been to in a long time. Danny Glover was there. Daniel Dae Kim was there. S.F. Mayor Gavin Newsom hosted with Moveon.org and was there. Death Cab for Cutie's Chris Walla and Ben Gibbard, Jenny Lewis of Rilo Kiley, and Zooey Deschanel performed. And DJ Z-Trip and some amazing woman with a hoola hoop did a spectacular job of making sure that a fun time was had by all. Of course, Shepard Fairey was there, as well and the gallery hosting the party, Manifest Hope Gallery, was showing his art and featuring his Obama pieces. There was dancing and more enthusiasm for Obama than I'd seen the previous several days at the convention!

I've just got to say that I also learned something at this shindig.  I got there just as DJ Z-Trip was finishing up the earlier concert. He had the crowd, almost all people in their 20's, so excited about Obama - I hadn't seen this side of the Obama phenomena and it was eye opening. There was a thrill in the air and for the first time, I got into it. I don't think I've ever seen that many 20-somethings, every one tragically hip, interested in, let alone totally enthusiastic about, what happens to the country and who leads it. We'll see if the youth turnout will be what the hype suggests, but from what I saw last night - it's possible.

I love Denver!!

Big Political Day

Some days there are just too many things, and we need to let everyone know all of the things that are happening.

1. Yesterday we reported that Congressman Don Young's political career was on a bridge to nowhere. Today, that looks like it may have reversed. He is now ahead by 152 votes including provisional ballots. There will be recounts upon recounts. Developing..

2. Obama is speaking tonight.. his cameo last night was actually very exciting and well timed.

3. McCain is set to announce his VP pick in the next 24-48 hours. Any guesses as to who it will be?

Live from the Democratic National Convention: Obama vs. Billary and the Generational Divide

DENVER, CO-

Sitting in another Starbucks on Day Three of the Democratic National Convention. A bit fried, but ready for another round of politics as game show. The headliners tonight are Bill Clinton and Joe Biden. I'm gonna be interested to see how much attacking is done, how aggressive these guys are in going after the Republicans. I imagine that Biden will come out swinging. Lots of call-and-response. And of course it will be interesting to see how emphatic President Clinton is in his support of Barack.

Much has been made of the contentious relationship between Hillary and Obama, but the one who's really smarting is Bill. You can go back through the primary season and pick your moments, trying to find the many causes of the lingering hard feelings. The attack ads on Hillary. The race card that Bill feels was played against him in South Carolina.

But in the end, the real reason for Bill's disgruntlement would seem to be twofold:


1.) Obama beat his wife in a squeaker.

2.) Obama has assumed leadership of the Democratic party, wresting it away from the Clintons, who have held the title for more than fifteen years. (This may turn out to be temporary.)

 


There are a good many angry Clintonites here in town, the majority of whom are older Democrats, establishment Dems who have been involved for years. I can verify that. I've seen it. I've talked to it. I've listened to it. Sometimes the anger is overt. More often the anger is subtle.

Understandably, they are disappointed. Their preferred candidate lost an incredibly close race. Gut-wrenching. Historic. And then, to add salt to the wound, she didn't get the nod for V.P. She didn't even get vetted. It seems she was barely considered at all. This offends them, perhaps rightfully so.

The more moderate among Clintonites---which is to say, most of them---are still going to vote for Barack in November. I've heard this repeatedly throughout the week. And after Hillary's speech last night, one would think that the herd would continue to rally around the larger cause.

Yes, we're disappointed. Yes, we would prefer Hillary. But it is what it is, and of course we're going to support Obama.

And then, of course, there is the small minority of Clinton supporters who are truly livid and deeply, irreversibly bitter. They really dislike Obama and wouldn't even think of supporting him in November. These folks are getting a lot of air time, of course, but they are really only a small part of the story. The radical fringe.

I find them fascinating. Most people do, it seems. They have blinders on, these people. Such is their love for their candidate. It's not that they're wrong in all respects---Barack Obama did throw some sharp elbows at the Clintons throughout the primary season, and his campaign staff hasn't done a great job of reaching out to Hillary supporters in the wake of her defeat.

But to my mind, there is nothing that Barack Obama did that hasn't been done a million times over by every presidential candidate in history---including the Clintons, most certainly.

And yet these diehard Clinton people don't see that. Or won't see that.

Rose-colored glasses.

The media was against Hillary.

(A statement that holds more than a grain of truth.)

Obama was against Hillary and played dirty.

(Yes, but Hillary played every bit as dirty, as did Bill.)

 


To be fair: Plenty of Obama supporters see their candidate through rose-colored glasses and believe that both he and his campaign staff have conducted themselves with absolute integrity.

And naturally this, too, is utter bullshit.

Obama can play ugly just like any of them. One of his great skills is doing so while maintaining a dignified calm.

Ruthlessness would appear to be a fixture (and a necessity?) of presidential politics.

 


Increasingly, I am coming to see this election as generational in nature. Generational among Democrats, with the younger half of the party being far more comfortable with Obama than the older, more entrenched half. And generational on the national level, where, say, the Baby Boomers have a hard time "feeling comfortable" with Obama and his "exotic background," while their offspring have no trouble at all.

Speaking generally:

The older half of the American electorate seems overwhelmingly White Male in its orientation. And if not White Male, then White Female (as long as it's Hillary).

The younger half, less so.

Looking ahead to November, it would seem that the election will be determined by young voters and new voters in the under-forty set. College kids casting their first ballot. Minorities feeling compelled to vote for the very first time. Nobody really knows what kind of impact these voters will have. It's a hard thing to measure or predict.

You talk to older voters in both parties, and the sense is that Obama has a steep uphill climb ahead of him. They're not entirely enthused. They're not entirely optimistic.

"Yes, he's a very impressive young man, but I just don't know if he has the experience. I just don't know if America is ready for that."

You talk to younger voters, and the opposite is often true. Not only is the country ready for it, it's in dire need of it.

Time will tell which side wins out.


 


Running on fumes,
BL



Brad Listi is in Denver all week. You can track him at www.BradListi.com.

Go Scweitzer Go!

Speeches That Sometimes Lead to Big, Big Things

The big news last night was, of course, Hillary Clinton's speech to fellow Democrats. What was she going to say? Would she be enthusiastic enough about Barack Obama? Would she mean what she said? Would she be persuasive enough?

I say yes. She did the gracious and loyal thing and she did it well.

But I believe something else might have happened last night. A rising star made an impression and you never know where that leads, sometimes to the White House. There was a whole line-up of rising star speakers for last night's convention proceedings. But there was only one who stood out. And my guess is that it wouldn't have been the one you'd expect. I suppose the Democratic Party must have been clued in, as must be the state of Montana, but the rest of us might have supposed that Mark Warner would rock our worlds, or maybe Deval Patrick. It wasn't them.

Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana, was the man of the hour. He impressed some CBS News folks I was sharing space with - both for the speech and for the affect he had on the crowd. And they were right - the Hall was snoozing until Schweitzer got going. He was great! Watch out for him in the coming years!

142 and counting

Is it the end of 18-term Congressman Don Young's career? Thats right, a man that is an icon of Alaska politics, and was elected when Nixon was winning his re-election is loosing the Alaska primary by 142 votes to Lt. Governor Sean Parnell. While 142 votes is pretty close, and look for a re-count, looks like Don Young will be heading to retirement. Maybe they are going to send him out on the bridge to nowhere.

DAY TWO: What Are Democrats Thinking??

Hillary is Phenomenal

I will vote for Barack Obama. I will vote for Barack Obama because I believe that this country and the world will be far, far, far better off with a Democrat in the White House. I will vote for Barack Obama because Hillary Clinton insists that I do. She said so last night in no uncertain terms. With conviction. And I will do my best to heed her call.


But listening to Clinton last night also made me feel uneasy. It made me sad. Very sad. Sure, I am sad that we won't have the first woman president yet. And sure I am disappointed that my candidate lost. But it also made me sad because I believe that Democrats have taken a huge risk by nominating Barack Obama over Hillary. I believe that John McCain has an excellent chance of winning.


In this year, where everything is going right for Democrats, what is the Party thinking??! What is the complicit media thinking? Sure Barack Obama is exciting, but these are uncertain and difficult times. Our security, including eocnomic, is at stake. Some say that our democracy is at stake with Bush in the White House and that with McCain it will be in an equally precarious situation. Giving good speeches isn't enough - I am sure Obama has more to offer than just good speeches, but his other skills are not yet refined. I am worried he will lose to McCain. Clinton would have cleaned McCain's clock and we would have had a Democrat in the White House. Short of being the presidential candidate, choosing Hillary would have been genius. Together they would have been indestructible. I cannot fathom why he picked Joe Biden over Hillary Clinton. I am very scared - I am afraid we will lose.


Again.


Look, John Kerry would have made an excellent president. He is a fabulous senator. And a very nice man, but he wasn't the right choice back in 2004 because he was not going to win. He did not have the ability to campaign on par with George Bush. It was clear from the beginning, but the Democratic Party decided to back him anyway. I didn't understand that and I don't understand this.


I've been a Democrat my whole life and when the Clintons came into office, they began to fix all the things I thought were wrong with the old Democratic Party. They modernized, and brilliantly. After leaving office, however, the old Democrats and their ways took power again (well, what little they had) and nothing has gone right since. I'm talking strategy and policy. I mean . . . Democrats talking about drilling more oil in MORE U.S. locations. Uh - what?!

Hillary told us last night, there is a reason many people supported her. We must remind ourselves of those reasons, and vote for Obama.


The problem is - this argument infers that those who supported Hillary, supported her because of her policies. But policy is only part of the reason to vote for Hillary. The other reason is that she is immensely capable. She is the smartest person in the room, always, she has excellent judgement, she understands and has experience in military and international politics, and she is sharp, quick, an excellent interview and a great debater.


What worries me is that last night's speech was great for the true blue Democratic Hillary supporters, but what about all those independents and even Republicans? They will go to McCain because they liked Hillary because she made them feel safe. She made them feel that they and America would be protected. And no message Hillary delivers will make those folks feel that about Obama. They will vote for McCain.

Big Primary Day Alaska

While all eyes seem to be on Denver and the DNC Convention, there are some big primaries going on today.

In Alaska, there are primary challenges for both embattled Congressman Don Young and Senator Ted Stevens. If Stevens and Young are not victorious, look for the races to all of a sudden become swing seats and difficult for Republicans to hold onto. Most local polls show that Stevens will survive his primary challenge, but Young may very well be beaten by Lt. Governor Sean Parnell, who has gotten support from the Club for Growth and Governor Palin.

If Parnell wins, look for an easy victory in November. This will be interesting to watch..

Day One

Convention Fun: Minnesota and Nebraska

My feet hurt. I don't have a voice left. It hurts to hold my head up. And have a I mentioned HOW MUCH FUN I'm having at the Convention in Denver?! A retired Army nurse practitioner and Dallas AM radio talk show host manning the door at the Nebraska Delegate Luncheon inviting us in because we were wearing similar dresses; Minnesota delegates getting excited about our new website, Votimus, while changing her shoes in the upscale lobby of the Grand Hyatt; salsa dancing with a local, Denver jewelry maker who's really from Texas (everyone's from Texas!); and lots of old friends.

I am too tired to know for sure, but I am pretty positive that people will be weighing in on whether Michelle Obama's speech was good, whether she talked about the things she "should" talk about, how she looked, etc. So I think I'll skip all that and go straight to Minnesota. And Nebraska.

Minnesota did you say? Who cares about Minnesota? And Nebraska? Really?

Well, a whole of people living in Minnesota are pretty excited about a candidate named Ashwin Madia. He came out of nowhere to win the Minnesota primary. I met a delegate at the Democratic Convention today who was really excited about this race and this candidate. She said that he could do great things and that it was really terrific to see him beat a much more well known candidate who had been a state senator. Madia will face Erik Paulsen in the fall - maybe he can turn this red seat to blue.

And in Nebraska, a newcomer named Scott Kleeb is running for the Senate. He beat a Republican-turned Democrat in the primary and garnered a lot of attention and excitement in the process. He raised money like crazy, in small donations. And Kleeb told me today that he is even leading in the polls! Well, he said he's winning in lots of the state's polls, but not yet in the Omaha area. But Kleeb is confident, as every candidate must be, that he will win this area too, and turn the tide. Of course, statewide Rasmussen has Kleeb back 26 points still, but Kleeb has been steadily gaining, growing his share of the polled vote from 28% to 34%. It's unlikely that this will be Democratic turnover, but Kleeb is putting up the good fight - and with a great attitude!

O M G!

Hard, Hard Hitting McCain Ad

Wow. I mean . . . wow.

This ad! This is an ad. A female voice-over saying that Hillary Clinton won millions of votes, but isn't on his ticket . . . for speaking the truth . . . the truth hurt . . . and Obama didn't like it.

This is one of the most interesting ads I've ever seen. And heard. You don't even really need the visuals - a few carefully placed words and BAM! POW! I am not sure of the effect it will have, but I'm thinking that it won't be good for Barack Obama. It could be really, really bad for him. Back in the summer of 2007 when the McCain campaign looked to be all but dead, I (and I'm sure all those McCain supporters) thought . . . don't write John McCain off yet, he's pretty resilient. I wish I had been wrong.

For those of us who believe that Obama's best chance for success was lost when he chose a vice presidential candidate who is not Hillary, this ads resonates. Deeply. I hope that the Obama campaign has something big, something powerful planned to convince Hillary supporters that we all (myself included) have to get over it and move on. America and the world needs for us to vote for the Democrat. I am worried.

Check it out - it's called "Passed Over" and you can find it on YouTube. It's like those sugar-coated sour candies that make you shrivel up your nose and shake every time you eat them but you still can't get enough.

Alright, But Not A Rock Star

Obama Picks Biden

OK, I'm going to have to lay it all on the table now. I am not a fan of Barack Obama. I was a Hillary supporter. And I did not receive a text message!!! What's THAT about?? Nada. Not even the text that supposedly went out a couple of hours AFTER the media got wind of it. That's where I'm coming from. . . . 

I thought . . . if only Obama would pick a VP candidate who would make me feel like we are taken care of, in good hands, protected, but also politically sexy in that way that gives us the feeling we're in the presence of greatness. Especially with all that build up! Nothing less than greatness was going to make me feel better about voting for Barack Obama.

And so it is . . . .  Nothing is going to make me feel good about voting for Barack Obama. I am underwhelmed. Except that John McCain is the alternative.

It's funny, though. It's not like I don't like Joe Biden. He is a very impressive senator and was a respectable presidential candidate. And I love his foreign policy, well the parts of it I know. He was the smartest guy in the country on Iraq for a while.  Richard Holbrook respects him.

But here's the kicker. Our next president has to have good foreign policy ideology, policy, and execution.  Biden is good on the policy, no doubt. Probably good on the ideology, but I'd have to learn a bit more to know for sure. But execution - well, it won't be up to him. And I don't believe he'll even be a strong enough influence over that. That's the kicker.

The reason I wanted Obama to pick a rock star (at least a foreign policy rock star) is because I believe that Obama will be too soft and indecisive and accommodating and patient when it comes to world politics. I worry that he will try to please all parties involved and will not see real threats for what they are.  I believe Obama needs someone who has the gravitas to actually affect presidential decisions. I don't believe Joe Biden will have that kind of influence. I just don't.

HOWEVER, John McCain scares me more. I believe that his shortcomings would be even more detrimental to American and world safety. He overreacts. For the man (yes, man, not person, man) who will have the power to send bombs flying, overreaction is not the characteristic I'd ever choose.

Barack Obama is sharp. If he listens to good advice, if he acts swiftly when that is warranted, we will be in goods hands. And, of course, there is domestic policy - Obama beats McCain in every category. The Supreme Court justices McCain might appoint . . . that alone is enough to make me lose sleep.

Biden is a good man. A respectable man. A smart man. He is Catholic and has a lovely family. He has suffered personal loss. He has a great sense of humor. He has a lot going for him that makes for a good candidate and might attract some of the votes Obama wouldn't attract on his own (read, Catholic and working class white voters - not sure Biden will have any affect over the Catholic Latino vote).  I really like Joe Biden. And, if he does have the power to make Obama really listen to him, my worries will be allayed.

If.

Obama has already disappointed all his naive supporters who believed he was some kind of different candidate, would make some kind of different president that would have such a fresh look at this old game of politics that America and the world would be aright again. Maybe naming a moderate, 36-year veteran of Congress won't shock them, then.

Of course, what I really believe is that an Obama-Hillary ticket would have carried the day for Democrats and would have secured the presidency.

So, what will all the Clinton voters do? Especially the women who might not be diehard Democrats? What will they do? Will Hillary and Bill's Convention speeches convince their supporters to support Obama and is that what it will take? Stay tuned. . . .

Obama-Biden 2008, or: Things to Do in Denver When You're Drunk

So the pick is in. Finally.

Joseph Biden, sixty-five years old. A thirty-five year veteran of the Senate and a Roman Catholic liberal out of Delaware. Loquacious. Lunch bucket. Foreign relations. Comb-over. Scranton roots. Passionate. A Crest Whitestrips smile.

I had predicted Evan Bayh a few weeks ago, thinking that Obama would go with someone slightly younger. Close but no cigar. To me Bayh seemed like the perfect hybrid candidate---young enough yet experienced enough, liberal enough yet moderate enough, strong enough yet sensitive enough, Beltway enough yet Heartland enough. Plus, he was a Hillary guy. Party unity. A team of rivals.

Not to be.

The Question On Everyone's Mind. . . .

What's Happening in Oklahoma?

OK, so maybe that isn't the question on everyone's minds, but there's actually something mildly interesting happening in the Oklahoma senate race and we have to talk about something while waiting for that special text message from the Obama campaign.

According to the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, this very red state's Republican incumbent, Senator James Inhofe, is facing what could amount to a real challenge this fall.  Oklahoma State Senator Andrew Rice is running on the Democratic ticket and isn't polling half bad.  Back in June his pollster had him at a not-very-impressive 33%. But then he hired David Eichenbaum of Struble Eichenbaum Communications to make him a couple of ads. Now he's polling at 41% to Inhofe's 50%.  Not bad work by Mr. Rice and Mr. Eichenbaum.

The question is, are Mr. Eichenbaum's ads so good and is there such a need for change throughout the country that Republican Sooners will vote for this Christian missionary whose brother was killed in the 9/11 attacks?  Can any ad be THAT good? Of course not. And does a need for change mean that the senate freshman class next year will include 35 freshmen? I really don't think so and neither does anyone else. My guess, even though Inhofe doesn't usually win with much more than 55%, the senior senator from Oklahoma will be back and the GOP can rest easy in Oklahoma . . . but you never know.

Thoughts on My Impending Trip to Denver for the Democratic National Convention

I'm gonna be there all week, reporting on the madness. Apparently it's gonna be a love-fest. Or a love-hate fest. Lots of backbiting. Lots of back room backstabbing. Lots of lines. Lots of political largess. Lots of speculation. Lots of sycophants. Lots of rumors. Lots of Rumer Willis.

Lots of lobbyists. Lots of policy discussions. Lots of celebrities with causes. Lots of angry protesters. Lots of hippies. Lots of cameras. Lots of cell phone cameras. Lots of cell phones.

Lots of port-o-lets. Lots of Pink Ladies. Lots of bad food. Lots of Springsteen. Lots of smoke-filled rooms. Lots of Al Sharpton. Lots of plastic smiles. Lots of Grecian formula. Lots of Hunter Thompson impersonators. Lots of cops. Lots of guest lists. Lots of wonks. Lots of wonkettes.

Lots of messianic fervor. Lots of fainting. Lots of dehydration. Lots of drunken polemics. Lots of finger food. Lots of "Yes We Can." Lots of Chris Matthews. Lots of personal space infractions. Lots of hand-painted signs on street corners. Lots of traffic. Lots of strippers. Lots of blaming it on the altitude.

Maybe lots of tear gas. Who knows?

 


Actually, I'm not sure if Rumer Willis is gonna be there. I just made that one up. And besides, her father is a Republican. Even so, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see her wandering around on the convention floor in a frantic search for Ryan Seacrest.

Denver is gonna be Hollywood and Washington, D.C. for a week---which should make for a pretty terrifying spectacle. I'm in Los Angeles right now and already there is the sense that much of the town is about to pack up and head for the hills. The concentration of cameras and film equipment on the front range is simply irresistible; it is exhibiting a sort of planetary gravitational pull on the various members of the Hollywood Talent Brigade. Now is a moment to capitalize.

I join this twisted migration out of a deep sense of patriotism and a terminal case of morbid curiosity. Also, I'm completely shameless and blessed with an impeccable instinct for grim hypocrisy. And naturally I will be arriving in the Mile High City with my own set of camera equipment and various other technological devices, so that I might record what I see for posterity.

A laptop. An aircard. A digital voice recorder. A video camera. A camera. A Blackberry.

 


It's going to be sort of ridiculous. I understand that. I embrace that.

 


Last time Denver hosted a national political convention was a century ago, in 1908. An earlier, sleepier era. The Democrats nominated William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska for president; his running mate was John W. Kern, of Indiana. The party took place at the Denver Auditorium, a state of the art venue built especially for the occasion.




Jennings and Kern went on to be trounced by the rotund William Howard Taft in the general election.

The average cost of a hotel room in Denver in 1908 was one dollar; today it's about $150.

The Denver Auditorium was built for $700,000; the Pepsi Center, which will host the first three nights of this year's convention, cost $180 million.

In 100 years' time, we've gone from the age of the Denver Auditorium all the way to the Pepsi Center.




In some ways, that pretty much says it all.

 


More to come. Stay tuned.


-BL




Brad Listi is the author of the bestselling novel Attention. Deficit. Disorder. and the founder of TheNervousBreakdown.com, an online publication featuring writers from around the world. You can find him online at www.bradlisti.com as soon as his web designers finish working on the new site---which should happen any minute now.

Home is where the heart, ummm...

How many houses do you own?

With the current financial state of the US economy, and the amount of foreclosures, many would say ZERO. Well, that is unless you are running for President, and are John McCain. When he was asked how many houses he owns, he wasn't even sure of the answer. When asked about it, he said,
"It's condominiums where — I'll have them get to you."

His spokesman said that it is at least 4, including Virginia, California and Arizona, while Newsweek estimates it may be as high as 7.

McCain would do well at Monopoly, don't you think? Well no one has asked how many hotels.

Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones Dies at the Age of 58

The Democratic Party was shocked today by the news of Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones' passing. Congresswoman Tubbs Jones was driving in her car last night when she suffered an aneurysm. She was taken to the hospital and, less than 24 hours later, was pronounced dead.  Her death is a great loss to Congress and to the Democratic Party.

Congresswoman Tubbs Jones was well-liked and respected.  She represented the 11th District of Ohio for almost 10 years and was the first black woman to represent Ohio in the House of Representatives.  She also held a seat on the powerful Ways and Means Committee (the first black woman to hold a seat on that esteemed committee) where she was an outspoken critic of President Bush's tax cuts.  She was also a powerful advocate against the War in Iraq and consistently voted against supporting it. 

As an enthusiastic supporter of Hillary Clinton in her presidential bid, Tubb Jones gained national recognition.  After Clinton bowed out of the race, Tubbs Jones endorsed Barack Obama. She also made it known that she believed Hillary Rodham Clinton would make a fine vice presidential pick.

What happens now in the 11th District race?  According to Ohio state election law, the Democratic Party has about 2 months to find another candidate to take Tubbs Jones' place on the November ballot. Despite the desire to grieve, the Party will have to wait and instead immediately search for a viable candidate who will be able to hold on to this strongly Democratic Ohio seat. They may just have a good chance of doing this, though, because the Republican candidate is an unknown who has almost no presence at all on the internet and has filed no campaign-finance reports (which, giving him the benefit of the doubt, means he hasn't raised any cash).  You can't even find a photograph of him anywhere on the Internet, let alone his profession or stance on the issues.  In fact, if you, gentle reader, can find a photo or anything else about Mr. Thomas Pekarek, please let us know at feedback@votimus.com!

Lieberman, for Republican VP?

The rumors are getting stronger and stronger. John McCain, the ultimate Maverick, would select former VP Nominee and now Independent (former Democrat, until he lost the primary to Ned Lamont) Senator Lieberman (CT) as his running mate.

How would Republicans react to this? Well, if Rush Limbaugh is any indication, there could be a mass exodus. Rush and some other leading conservative bloggers said that they will not support McCain for President if Lieberman is on the ticket. Who would they support? Could Bob Barr be a dark horse? Only time will tell.

VEEP! VEEP!

Announcements Imminent . . . Almost

It is now rumored that Barack Obama will announce his VP pick this week, maybe even as early as today. He's going to send me a text message so that I am "the first to know." Um. I mean, me and about a million other people, including the news media. But I still feel special.  According to Politico, John McCain is going to announce his pick after the Dem. Convention, possibly at a birthday rally he's holding in Dayton, Ohio on August 29th.

And the New York Times has told us that Barack's list has been narrowed to three:  Evan Bayh, Tim Kaine, and Joe Biden.  Bloggers on the left were hoping for someone more like Al Gore or Wesley Clarke - Clarke was probably never in the running, but took himself out involuntarily with some controversial words about what McCain does and does not know about foreign policy. As for Al Gore . . . been there, done that.  And don't forget about Hillary Clinton. No one believes that she will be named VP, but no one can keep her out of the discussion either.

Jonas Brothers Show Up at the White House

How awesome? How cool? The Jonas brothers stopped by the White House to say hello to the Press Corps. They were in town to unveil wax figures of themselves. Many journalists had no clue who the Jonas brothers were, but Vice President Cheney was "hip" to the teen trio, bringing his grandchildren by to meet them. They also had a briefing on diabetes, as one of the boys is affected with the disease.

The brothers also got to sign one of the walls in the White House, which included signatures from Bono and other celebrities. Now that is what I call a lasting impression!

Coleman v. Franken

Norm Coleman Lead Over Al Franken Shrinks a Bit

The latest polls of the Minnesota senate race show, for the most part, Coleman still in the lead, but by a smaller margin than a month ago. His lead in one poll shows him up by 7 over Franken, while still another, a Rasmussen poll, even shows Franken with a slight lead over Coleman. Note that the Rasmussen polls have shown a closer race for a little while and they are polling about 500 people, whereas the Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP.com polls have been using a larger sample of over 1,200 and had, up until late July, been showing a much wider margin of about 15 points in Coleman's favor. And, of course, there are all those other candidates (10 Independents, Libertarians, and Greens right now) who will chip away at Coleman and Franken's final tallies.

Meanwhile, showing an opposite trent, Minnesotans, by a comfortable margin, had been telling pollsters they were likely to vote for Obama, but lately Obama's lead has been a bit smaller, sometimes as little as a couple of points. Either there is no correlation between the presidential and senate races because the candidates are so different and local politics is not presidential politics . . . . or . . . Minnesotans are slowly moving to the middle, from the left and from the right, making both races a bit tighter.

Russia, Georgia, Poland, Nukes, and Presidential Politics

The presidential candidates have spent some time this week responding to the crisis in Georgia and learning all about a place called South Ossetia. The proverbial 3am call came, not to Barack Obama or John McCain, but to President George Bush. But the candidates let Americans know what they would do or say if they had been sleeping in the White House when that call came.  McCain's campaign says that Obama responded too softly, not taking seriously enough Russia's aggression and threats.  Obama's campaign says that McCain's response was overblown, lacking the finesse required for the world of geopolitics.

Of course, it is George Bush who is president and who had to act, which he did swiftly and with more force than Barack Obama's reaction indicated but with less bluster than John McCain's reaction suggested.  In fact, there has been relatively little criticism so far of the way the President and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice have handled Russia's movement into Georgia . . . could that mean that both candidates actually agree with how the United States is handling this situation so far? Could it be that Americans all agree that what is going on has great geopolitical importance and that what's happening to the people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and Georgia is not a good thing and that all of this rises above campaign politics? A girl can dream.

Oil pipelines that pass through Georgia and do not pass through Russia or Iran are at issue here. Preservation of former-USSR democracies are at issue here. A resurgence of the old USSR is at issue here. Ethnic cleansing is at issue here. Poland and the US missle shield are at issue here. Iran's nuclear capabilities are at issue here. Israel's survival is even at issue here. Russia has made clear that it matters again. How would a President Obama handle this? How would a President McCain handle this?

Last night CNN will rebroadcast the season's first presidential forum involving only Obama and McCain. They appeared at Rick Warren's Saddleback Church on Saturday and answered interesting questions about character and leadership (surprisingly few about religion or even typically evangelical issues) that reveal a bit about how each would handle US foreign policy and international crises. The candidates appeared in the same 2-hour period, but they took questions from Warren separately.

Not So Rocky News

Colorado Primaries

Colorado primaries  involved some notable characters, but the results are not too surprising.  Republican Congressman and former presidential candidate Tom Tancredo, who is known nationally for his strong words on immigration issues, is retiring and most likely to take his seat is Mike Coffman, the current Colorado Secretary of State.  Coffman beat his main opponent in the primary, Wil Armstrong by a comfortable 9 point margin. This 6th congressional district seat is a pretty safe Republican seat, and so Democrat Hank Eng will have a tough time in the general election, even if fellow Republicans aren't too happy about their Secretary of State giving up a rare Republican seat in statewide government.

In the 5th district, Colorado Springs saw a contest among three serious candidates in the Republican primary. Jeff Crank and Bently Rayburn made Congressman Doug Lamborn work a little to retain his seat in the House. In the end, Lamborn pulled it out with a clear win, beating his two main contenders 46% to Crank's 29% and Rayburn's 25%.

And in the 2nd congressional district, there was a real race in the Democratic primary for Congressman Mark Udall's seat. Udall is giving up his congressional seat to run for US Senate.  Jared Polis beat the ex-state senate president, Joan Fitz-Gerald, and conservationist Will Shafroth 42% to 38% to 20%. Although this race was mostly a matchup between Polis and Fitz-Gerald, Shafroth put in a good showing, getting the Rocky Mountain News and Denver Post endorsements by media who were not liking the intensity of the race between Polis and Fitz-Gerald.  It is likely that Polis will be the next congressman to represent Boulder, Colorado as this is a safe Democratic seat.  He will not be the first millionaire to join Congress (he gave himself $5 million to win this race), but he will be one of only a few who is openly gay.

Powell to Vote For Obama

Sources close to the former Joint Chiefs of Staff and military hero Colin Powell are confirming that he may in fact endorse and vote for Senator Obama this November. Though he has a close relationship with Senator McCain, and they are both Military Veterans, a source close to Powell says of him and McCain;

" likes him and is looking for a reason to vote for him. He hasn't found it yet."

With Obama in the White House, can we expect a return of Powell? Only time will tell.

Republican Senator Refuses to Endorse Anyone

Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican Maverick from Nebraska, made a huge decision yesterday. Hagel, says he refuses to endorse any candidate for President. Considering that he serves with both Senator Obama and Senator McCain, this is pretty shocking.

Hagel, who has been a critic of the Iraq War, has been parting ways with the President in recent months. Some had speculated that he was going to be a running mate of Obama's, which could have offset McCain's possible choice of Senator Lieberman. As they say in the news business, developing...

The VP is... LOL

In news from the Obama for President Campaign, they are proving that they are the candidate who can use technology to further their campaign. Obama has announced that he will announce his VP Contender via text message. Now the question is who that VP will be. Rumor is that it will be Evan Bayh, but who knows? They did spend 30 hours together this past weekend. Don't expect the McCain Campaign to do the same. McCain has said that he doesn't even know how to use a computer.

Tennessee, Tennessee, There Ain't No Place I'd Rather Be

Excitement in Johnson City and Memphis

Davis v. Roe

In eastern Tennessee, it looks like Republican Congressmember David Davis will not be making it to the general election or back to Congress next year. His challenger, Dr. Phil Roe, has bested him in the primary, beating him by a slim but definite margin.  Roe was mayor of Johnson City before declaring his run for Congress. He is favored to win in the general election where he will face off against Democrat Rob Russell.  This district has been Republican for a century and was once held by President Jackson.

 Cohen v. Tinker

Meanwhile, on the other side of the state in Memphis, Democrats were battling it out in a race that turned pretty nasty. Challenger Nikki Tinker ran some ads suggesting that her opponent, incumbent Congressman Steve Cohen, was racist. Cohen is famous for having expressed interest in joining the Congressional Black Caucus. He represents a largely African American district. EMILY's List, which had endorsed Tinker, criticized the ads, as did presidential candidate Barack Obama.  The ads were so nasty that they may have backfired as Cohen originally comfortable lead turned into a rout. Congressman Cohen will go on to the general election and will likely be returning to Congress in January.

Edwards

Yes on Affair . . . But No on Love Child?

The National Enquirer has been saying for months that former Senator and presidential candidate John Edwards had an affair with Rielle Hunter and fathered a child with her. I would never have guessed the Enquirer would have the real scoop on this, but it turns out they were right. Today, Edwards told ABC News' Bob Woodruff (in an interview to air tonight on Nightline) that he did have the affair, but that Rielle's daughter is not his.

In fact, he apparently goes farther and proclaims that he did not love Ms. Hunter. He emphasizes that he had this affair when his wife Elizabeth's cancer was in remission and that he told Elizabeth about the affair back in 2006.

According to ABC News, the name of the father is not listed on the child's birth certificate and Ms. Hunter has been living in North Carolina and Santa Barbara under assumed names.  Edwards says the affair was over long ago. However, he does admit that he was visiting Ms. Hunter at the Beverly Hill Hilton a few weeks ago.

So . . . what does this mean? For Edwards, he probably won't be invited onto the presidential ticket or into a Democratic presidential cabinet. For Democrats, the DNC has to decide whether Edwards will have a role at the Democratic Convention - I'd say, odds are against, but we'll see that Nightline interview tonight and how this all flushes out.  For Republicans, this isn't bad news, but I'm not sure it gets them much either . . . although, I'm thinking this must be a happy day for the Grand Old Party now that Spitzer has some company and it isn't Larry Craig making the headlines.

In my own opinion, I don't really care who the nation's politicians are or are not sleeping with, but ever since Election Number One when George Washington ran for his second term as president of the very new United States of America, Americans have loved their political dirt.

Upset in Kansas

Jenkins, Not Ryun, to Face Boyda in the Fall

In an upset, Lynne Jenkins, Treasurer of Kansas, has bested Tim Ryun in the 2nd District congressional Republican primary.  Not only was Ryun leading in the polls leading up to the primary election, but he is also the former congressman from that district who was squeezed out in 2006 by now-Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.  Ryun came very close to being able to try to reclaim his old seat, but Jenkins didn't give him the chance, beating him 51% - 49%.

And on to the main event . . . Jenkins appeared with her former rival, Ryun, to show Republican party unity and focus on unseating first-term Democrat Congresswoman Boyda.  For Boyda's part, she has taken a step away from fellow Democrats (and the more liberal Speaker Nancy Pelosi) by rejecting DCCC money. She says that she wants to run an independent campaign.  Kansas' 2nd District is sometimes Democratic, sometimes Republican . . . you just never know what those eastern Kansans will do.

That's Hot

Last Week, Senator John McCain launched a TV Ad saying that Barak Obama is unready to lead the nation. He compared Barak Obama's experience to Pop Singer Britney Spears and celebrity socialite Paris Hilton, of the Hilton Hotel fame. After Paris Hilton's Grandfather responded negatively to the advertisement, Paris Hilton took it into her own hands to respond to McCain. The ad is hilarious and worth a view. Click here to see it.

Stevens and McCain - Recent Alaska Polling

Alaska Senate Race - The Polling Angle

Since Senator Stevens was indicted and plead not guilty in connection with the federal case of forbidden quid pro quo, several polling firms have taken the pulse of Alaskans thinking about voting in the senate and presidential elections. Things are not looking good for the long-time senator. In June, Stevens was up by 2 in a Rasmussen poll. By July 17, Mark Begich gained 10 points over Stevens for an 8-point lead, and by July 30, that lead widened to 13 points (37-50).

This is obviously good news for senate Democrats, but how is it affecting the national GOP mood? What does this mean for McCain? Well . . . you might think that McCain's lead would shrink a bit with all this bad news about the Republican senator, but instead, McCain's lead is growing. Go figure! (OK, so not totally crazy, can you say oil prices, oil drilling, and most recently, tire pressure gauges?) McCain was up by only 4 points in this traditionally red state back in June. By July 17, as Stevens fell farther behind, McCain's lead over Obama didn't shrink at all. It grew. And by July 30, with Stevens really suffering, McCain widened his lead to 6 points.  So, bad news for the NRSC and good news for the RNC.

Howard Stern- Never to Vote Democrat Again

Thats right, former New York State Governor Candidate and Radio Host Howard Stern declared that he would never vote for a Democrat again. He was a supporter of Hillary Clinton and John Kerry. He is pretty angry over the merger between XM and Sirius Radio. To listen to the full audio of this, click here.

Not Everyone Will Be In Minnesota

Today, the news came that Vice President Dick Cheney isn't coming to the RNC Convention in Minnesota. Why is that? Is McCain trying to distance himself from Bush/Cheney? Is Cheney just not feeling very close to McCain?

Read the full story here.

Staten Island Congressional Race

Fossella Not Running, But Beautiful

Straniere or Wyne (R) v. McMahon or Harrison

There is much ado about the congressional race in Staten Island this summer.  First, Vito Fossella announced he was not going to seek reelection because of a scandal involving drunk dirving, which led the media to discover that he had had affair and child.  Then, Republicans named Frank Powers to take his place. Sadly and unexpectedly, Powers suffered a heart attack and died in his sleep on June 22.

To fill this gap, the Republican Party has named Robert Streniere, a former Staten Island Assemblymember.  Although Streniere is not a favorite of fellow-Staten Island Republicans because of all the time he spend in Manhattan, he is thought to have the best chance of winning. This seat is the only one in NYC held by Republicans.  Also running on the Republican ticket is a cardiologist named Jamshad Wyne.

On the Democratic side, Michael McMahon has been endorsed by Democrats to try to take the seat from Republican hands.  The Party and Senator/DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer are backing McMahon. Also running is Stephen Harrison who claims that he has come close to winning this race before and will do it this time.

And an Libertarian candidate named Susan Overeem is also running for Fossella's seat.

The primary is set to take place on September 9, 2008.  Meanwhile, back in DC, The Hill has named Vito Fossella one of this year's "50 Most Beautiful People" citing his shiny hair.  Gotta love Washington!

Virginia Senate Race

Mark Warner v. Jim Gilmore

Today at Votimus we are featuring the Virgina senate race. Virginia has been considered a Republican state for a long time, especially in terms of presidential votes, but in recent years, there has been movement toward the Democratic column - partly because that has been the national trend and partly because of demographic shifts, especially in Northern Virigina where many northeasterners and others from around the country have settled.

Tim Kaine, the current governor, who also happens to be on the vice presidential candidate shortlist, is a democrat, and his predecessor, Mark Warner is also a democrat. Mark Warner was once considered a possible presidential candidate, but he decided to run for U.S. Senate instead. He is a rising star and has a very good chance of winning his race against another former governor of Virginia, Republican Jim Gilmore, III.

Democrats are feeling so good about Virginia these days that they have decided to also invest in House races this year. In fact, the DCCC just announced that they are going to invest in Judy Feder, who is running against Congressman Frank Wolf in Northern Virginia, and Tom Perriello, who is runninng against Congressman Virgil Goode in the southern Virginia. Apparently, Feder and Perriello exceeded fundraising goals and so are making those races more of a fight. Goode is a very conservative represenatative and Wolf is known for having brought funding to Northern Virginia to fight its gang problem.

More on the VEEP Watch

News organizations have been reporting that McCain is poised to name his VP pick any moment now. At the beginning of the week, the rumor was that the announcement would come this week, but its Friday and not surprisingly . . . no official word yet.  Of course, these are just Washington rumors and nothing has happened quite yet.

Tim Pawlenty is a favorite still, as is Carly Fiorina (former CEO of Hewlett Packard) who is favored because she is a Washington outsider and, of course, a woman. Can you imagine if McCain upstaged Obama by choosing a woman, especially with all the Hillary supporters out there wishing she were the choice on the Democratic side? Evangenlicals would probably prefer Mike Huckabee. They would not prefer Mitt Romney, but Romney remains the favorite. John Thune and Charlie Crist are still in the mix, as well. And so is Sarah Palin, but as governor of Alaska, a state where Republicans may not want too much attention (scandal with the Senate and House candidates), there is some question whether she'd be the wisest choice, despite her strong credentials and appeal.

On the Democratic side, there have been all kinds of rumors in Washington that Obama will pick his friend and law school buddy, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. (Kaine himself may have helped sparked these rumors, so take it all with a grain of salt.) Kaine is slightly more conservative than Obama, taking a more pro-life stance on abortion, for instance, and having been a Lieberman for president fan back in 2004. He does not have that much political experience, so it's not the most obvious choice, but then he represents Virginia, a key swing state this year (although I thing that the fact that they know each other personally would be a powerful factor, were Kaine actually chosen).

As Obama's lead tightens in swing states, pundits start to focus more on VP picks who could bring Obama one of those key states. Another of those states is Indiana and so Evan Bayh is a favorite choice in recent weeks.  Rumors of Bayh as the choice were fueled this week when it was reported that putting "ObamaBayh08" into your web browser would bring you to the Democratic National Committee website (it really does, though I'm not sure that actually means anything).  Joe Biden also remains in the mix, not because he represents Delaware, though and there are no internet search tricks here.

But, as I've said before . . . maybe they'll both surprise us!

Obama has been leading in national polls by between 2 and 7 points (although one poll has McCain in the lead by 4). Most of this is within the margin of error and so the race, as it stands today, is tight. On the other hand, Obama's lead in a number of key states is slipping a bit.  He's mostly up in Ohio, but only by a couple of points. Same with Michigan.

It's super close in Virginia, Indiana and Florida where Obama has McCain by a couple of points in most polls, but there are one or two polls showing McCain ahead. But, of course, what really matters is the electoral vote count - so keep your eyes on the swing state polls! (See Hotline's Battle for the Electoral College.) The race is on.